Gold’s performance has been rock-solid, so far.
The price of gold has risen by more than 40% in the past year.
From the lows of $1,630 per ounce in October 2022 to the current level of $3,260, gold has delivered 100% in just about 28 months.
Now, that’s what is called – par excellence performance.
While the gold prices have doubled in less than 30 months, the road ahead seems bumpy. It’s understandable. One can’t expect a linear growth in any asset class perpetually.
But, is something more happening here?
Behind Gold’s Excellent Performance
The tailwinds that drove the price of gold gathered pace over the past three years. Geopolitical tensions prompted central bank buying, attracting global investors to gold funds, thereby increasing demand for the precious metal. In response, prices rose.
The world knows that gold is the ‘God of Uncertain times’.
From the Russia-Ukraine war to Middle East conflicts to growing concern about the US fiscal situation, gold consistently found support as a safe-haven asset in uncertain times.
But, things are changing fast.
Even though 2025 started well for gold, with prices up over 27% year-to-date, it’s the recent performance that’s a matter of concern. Over the last one month, gold is half a percentage point down.
So, is the rally over for gold? Has the yellow metal finally lost its shine? Let us explore.
Headwinds for Gold
Until recently, gold was near its record-high peak price of $3,500 recorded on April 22, 2025.
Now, it seems to be losing steam.
Gold rate today in India is Rs 96,180 (under US$ 3,300), down 4% from the all-time high of Rs 1 lakh recorded on April 22.
Trump’s stance on tariffs appears to have eased the uncertainty. A lengthy trade war seems to have been averted by the White House’s latest signal that Trump intends to go slow on the imposition of reciprocal tariffs.
The next big gold-boosting moment was the Israel-Iran war, but that, too, ended (good for the world) with a ceasefire after 12 days.
Markets most likely sensed it early. As economic uncertainty did not look like a possibility soon, gold remained in a narrow range. Over the last two months,
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