Gold is a ‘sleeping giant’. History shows that for years, if not decades, gold prices move in a narrow range, until suddenly spiking. Between October 2011 and October 2022, the gold price trended lower and remained in the $1,700 range. From November 2022, gold saw a golden run with the price jumping from $1,700 to make an all-time high record of $3,500 this month.
The last time the sleeping giant woke up for the sprint was from October 2018, when gold was $1,130 to reach $1,984 in August 2020, a 75% gain in less than two years.
In the recent bull run in gold, the big up move started in 2023 when gold rose 13%. In 2024, the same story unfolded, and gold gained 27%.
If you are wondering what led to the sudden interest in gold, we have curated them here. While the reasons that boosted gold in 2023-24 remain valid even today, there is one more to consider in 2025: Trump tariffs.
Trump Tariff and Gold Price
All thanks to Trump tariff announcements, including the reciprocal tariffs on all countries, gold is already up by 25% this year.
The world knows that the Trump tariffs will potentially dampen economic activities. The biggest concern for global economies is the trade war between the two largest economies, the US and China.
The trade war is predicted to disrupt global supply chains and potentially impact bond and currency markets due to economic uncertainties. Such a scenario is the perfect breeding ground for the gold.
But gold seems to have hit a speed-breaker. After touching $3,500 on April 22, gold has lost almost $200 and trades around $3,300 now. In India, the gold rate today is Rs 95,320 after touching Rs 1 lakh for 10 grams of 24 carat gold on April 22.
Gold Headwinds Gather Pace
So, what could be the headwinds that suddenly led to the selling pressure in gold?
Trump declared that he will go slow on taking stiff measures against China as part of his tariff tirade. Even China is taking measures to de-escalate the trade war. In reality, confusion persists as both countries are sort of contradicting themselves.
But the fact that the trade war is not escalating seems to have worked,
» Read More
