Brokerages expect Reliance Industries (RIL) to report flattish year-on-year (YoY) growth in earnings and Ebida for the October-December quarter, with only single-digit sequential growth.
Morgan Stanley anticipates a 4% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) rise in earnings and Ebitda, but a relatively flat performance on a YoY basis. The brokerage attributes this to the impact of telecom tariff hikes and tightening global fuel markets. Retail segment Ebitda is also expected to remain flat as RIL continues to rationalise retail floor space, while sluggish demand and margins in the chemicals segment could weigh on overall performance.
“Details on the new energy vertical, a return to double-digit retail revenue growth, and value unlocking remain crucial,” Morgan Stanley noted, adding that these developments are expected to gain momentum starting Q2 of calendar year 2025.
Goldman Sachs echoed these views, projecting core Ebitda growth of 5% QoQ but limited YoY improvement. It attributed this to strong telecom earnings being offset by muted growth in retail and challenges in the energy segment. The brokerage highlighted management’s prior indications that restructuring efforts would continue to impact retail earnings through Q4.
Analysts at Prabhudas Liladher expect refining margins to improve sequentially amid stronger product cracks, even as petrochemical spreads remain weak. They foresee stable retail profitability and improving operating performance in the oil-to-chemicals (O2C) segment.
Bernstein has a more optimistic long-term outlook, highlighting 2025 as a recovery year for the company. The brokerage expects telecom and retail to drive earnings growth, with refining margins also seeing a rebound. “We anticipate telecom growth driven by a 12% rise in average revenue per user (Arpu) and a modest increase in subscriber numbers. Retail Ebitda is projected to return to double-digit growth,” Bernstein stated.
Refining margins are expected to stabilise after two challenging quarters, with gross refining margins (GRMs) recovering by over 5.4% YoY in FY26, easing the pressure on overall Ebitda margins. The weaker rupee is also likely to support profitability. In the New Energy business, RIL is steadily expanding its solar and battery manufacturing capabilities.
While challenges persist, brokerages agree that the company’s diversified portfolio and strategic initiatives will position it well for sustained growth in the coming years.
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