Gold jewellery industry to post 14-18% growth in FY25; one-time impact due to customs duty cut to contract margins by 50-70 bps

The domestic gold jewellery consumption (in value terms) is expected to continue its momentum in the current fiscal with an estimated growth of 14-18 per cent YoY, stated a report by ICRA. This follows the sharp growth of around 18 per cent in FY2024, which was primarily driven by realisations even as volume growth was subdued. Per the report, a 900 bps cut in import duty in the Union Budget in July 2024 and the consequent correction in gold prices for a brief period led to some pre-buying of jewellery as well as bars and coins during Q2FY25, which is generally a seasonally weak quarter. 

The consumption growth in the recent months was aided by improving consumer sentiments and festive-led demand even as gold prices were volatile. This, coupled with higher number of auspicious and wedding days, and favourable monsoons aiding better rural output, is likely to help jewellery demand growth in H2 FY2025, ICRA said. 

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In FY2024, revenue growth for organised jewellery had been supported by realisations with gold prices rising by around 14 per cent YoY. The same trend, per the report, is expected to continue this fiscal as well. So far in the current fiscal, the average gold price has risen by a sharp 25 per cent vis-à-vis FY2024 average price, despite occasional corrections – first, after the cut in customs duty in late July 2024 and then in November 2024, following the US elections and currency movements. The continuing uptick in the gold prices for the last seven quarters has been stimulated by the evolving global economic and geopolitical scenario, and rising investment demand for gold.

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On the supply side, organised jewellers are expected to add 16-18 per cent to their existing retail network in FY2025.

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