Russia remained the largest crude supplier to India in November, accounting for 38% of India’s total crude oil imports. However, imports from the country registered a marginal decline of 4% to 1.60 million barrels per day, against 1.67 million barrels per day in October, data from Vortexa showed.
The country imported 4.2 million barrels of crude oil per day in November, largely unchanged from last month, with Russia, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, and United States, being the top five suppliers.
While the share of crude oil sourced from Iraq and Saudi Arabia fell in November, the share of crude imports
from the US increased. Imports from Iraq declined by 20% on month at 699,029 barrels per day in November, as per the data. Imports from Saudi Arabia also fell by 8% to 568,236 barrels per day last month, from 614,598 barrels per day in October.
“Iraq’s share of Indian imports fell to 17% this month, down from 20% last month. India’s import share from the rest of the top 5 suppliers remained relatively stable, with around 1% change month-on-month,” said Xavier Tang, market analyst at Vortexa.
“India has been maximising its imports of Russian crude, as delivered Russian crude prices are still cheaper than most Middle Eastern grades,” Tang noted. “If Middle Eastern producers reduce their prices to stay competitive, Indian refiners could adjust their imports in favour of Middle Eastern crude.”
India’s crude imports are also dependent on the country’s domestic oil demand and export margins.
While the domestic demand is seasonally the strongest in the fourth quarter, and slows thereafter, clean product export margins outlook for Indian refiners is leaning towards more bearishness, amidst well-supplied Asian and European markets, according to Tang. “This may pose downside risks to India’s crude imports in the months ahead,” he said.
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Meanwhile, the country’s crude imports from the US is likely to remain unaffected under the new administration, analysts say. US domestic production is projected to increase next year, as part of the new drilled and completed wells coming online.
“The US incoming president, Donald Trump, has announced that he intends to impose 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico.
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