Proposed anti-dumping duty by US may derail ceramic tiles exports in FY25 while domestic demand remains resilient, says ICRA

Even as the resilient real estate demand is helping the revenue growth of the Indian ceramic tiles industry, a report by ICRA stated that the export market has started showing signs of a slowdown. It said that the demand slowdown from the USA is visible in the current fiscal, post the commencement of the USA Department of Commerce’s investigations, in May 2024, on ceramic tile imports from India. Further, the export momentum was derailed from Q4FY24 due to a sharp increase in freight cost amid the Red Sea crisis as well as slow moving residential markets in the USA and Europe. 

Per the analysis by ICRA, India’s ceramic tiles export revenue is likely to decline in FY2025, primarily on account of the anticipated imposition of significant anti-dumping duties by the US, resulting in an annual contraction in tile exports in FY2025. The US had accounted for 9 per cent of Indian tiles exports in FY2024. 

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Chintan Lakhani, Vice President and Sector Head – Corporate Ratings, ICRA, said, “ICRA expects exports to contract by ~8-10 per cent in FY2025, mainly due to the impact on India’s two major exports hubs — USA (owing to likely imposition of ADD) and Europe — given the continued sluggish residential markets. The decline could be even sharper if the Red Sea crisis persists for a prolonged period. India’s ceramic tiles export to Europe and the Americas has been impacted in recent quarters because of the increase in logistics cost, thus affecting competitiveness. While freight rates have eased sequentially, the logistics cost remains higher on a YoY basis and, hence, continues to impact the export demand.”

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Meanwhile, demand from the domestic market remains resilient in the backdrop of a favourable outlook for the real estate sector. Consequently, the overall revenue growth of the sector is estimated at 7-9 per cent for FY2025,

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