India’s natural gas demand is forecast to increase by nearly 60% by 2030 putting the country’s projected gas demand on a par with some of the world’s largest consumers, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Wednesday.
The agency released its report on India gas market outlook to 2030 during the India Energy Week here. According to the report, the country’s gas consumption is set to reach 103 billion cubic metres (bcm) annually by the end of the decade. “Following over a decade of slow growth and periodic declines, India’s natural gas demand increased by more than 10% in both 2023 and 2024, indicating an inflection point,” it said.
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“India’s gas market is entering a new phase of growth, supported by significant infrastructure development and clear policy direction,” IEA director of energy markets and security Keisuke Sadamori said. The projected rise in gas demand comes in line with an expected wave of new global LNG supply. “However, it will require careful planning and market coordination to ensure supply security and to help gas to compete in a price-sensitive market,” he said. The agency highlighted three key factors supporting this substantial growth — rapid infrastructure expansion, recovering domestic production, and an expected easing of global gas market conditions.
Infrastructure development is playing a crucial role in enabling the country’s market growth. Since 2019, India has almost quadrupled its number of compressed natural gas (CNG) stations and more than doubled the number of residential gas connections, while extending its transmission pipeline network by 40%. IEA expects the number of CNG stations and residential connections to nearly double again by 2030, with the gas transmission grid expanding by an additional 50%.
The city gas distribution sector is expected to lead consumption growth in India between now and 2030, supported by rapid CNG infrastructure expansion and competitive pricing against liquid fuels. The heavy industry and manufacturing sectors are expected to add around 15 bcm of demand during this period, while gas use in oil refining is forecast to increase by more than 4 bcm as more refineries connect to the network, as per IEA’s projections. The country’s domestic gas production, which met 50% of demand in 2023, is projected to grow gradually, reaching just under 38 bcm by 2030, at around 8% above 2023 levels.
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